Modeling some long-term implications of CO₂ fertilization for global forests and forest industries

  Background  This paper explored the long-term,ceteris-paribus effects of potential CO₂ fertilization on the global forest sector. Based on the findings of Norby et al. (PNAS 2005,102(50)) about forest response to elevated CO₂.

  Methods  Forest productivity was increased in the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) in proportion to the rising CO₂ projected in the IPCC scenario A1B,A2,and B2. Projections of the forest area and forest stock and of the production,consumption,prices,and trade of products ranging from fuelwood to paper and paperboard were obtained with the GFPM for each scenario,with and without CO₂ fertilization beginning in 2011 and up to 2065.

  Results  CO2 fertilization increased wood supply,leading to lower wood prices which in turn induced modest lower prices of end products and higher global consumption. However,production and value added in industries decreased in some regions due to the relative competitive advantages and to the varying regional effects of CO₂ fertilization.

  Conclusion  The main effect of CO₂ fertilization was to raise the level of the world forest stock in 2065 by 9 to 10 % for scenarios A2 and B2 and by 20 % for scenario A1B. The rise in forest stock induced by fertilization was in part counteracted by its stimulation of the wood supply which resulted in lower wood prices and increased harvests.