Unveiling the climatic tolerance and refugia potential of Abies cilicica Carr. through integrative niche modeling under climate change

Understanding the climatic responses of regionally restricted species is essential for developing robust conservation strategies. This study focuses on Abies cilicica, an oro-Mediterranean fir species with a fragmented distribution in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin. Using an integrative modeling framework combining habitat suitability modeling, climate typology overlay, and niche stability analysis, we assessed the current and future climatic suitability of A. cilicica under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios. Ecologically relevant variables were selected through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), refined by correlation analysis. The Ensemble algorithm was employed to generate distribution maps, which were further thresholded using the Jenks Natural Breaks classification and integrated with Köppen-Geiger climate typologies.Results indicate that A. cilicica currently occupies approximately 15.5 million ha of climatically suitable area, which is projected to decline substantially under all future scenarios, reaching 10.3 million ha under SSP126 and decreasing further to approximately 4.9–5.7 million ha under SSP370 and SSP585, respectively. This decline is accompanied by a pronounced narrowing of the species' climatic niche, with future suitability becoming increasingly concentrated within a restricted subset of climate classes, particularly Csa and Dsb. Persistent climatic niche areas were identified mainly in north-facing microrefugia of the Taurus Mountains, representing approximately 3.57 million ha of climatically stable refugia, while a considerable portion of currently suitable habitats (~6.24 million ha) is projected to transition into climatic risk zones. In parallel, latent niches suggest new climatically viable zones outside the species’ current range.These findings highlight not only spatial contraction but also a clear divergence between stable refugial areas and regions of increasing climatic risk. Our results emphasize the need for integrated conservation planning that incorporates both spatial projections and climatic typologies. This research provides actionable insights not only for the conservation of A. cilicica but also offers a transferable framework for other climate-sensitive species. Importantly, the study moves beyond static distribution models to propose a forward-looking, ecologically grounded strategy for managing biodiversity under climate change.